NATO races to guard against Russian nuclear subs without the US

There is a quiet irony in watching the world's most powerful military alliance rehearse its signature mission—hunting Russian submarines—while the nation that built the playbook watches from the sidelines. The waters between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom form a chokepoint that Cold War planners called the GIUK gap, and for decades it has been patrolled primarily by American nuclear submarines and P-8 maritime patrol aircraft. Their absence from these exercises is not a logistical footnote; it is a geopolitical statement. The balanced view here requires acknowledging that this is not necessarily a betrayal, but an evolution. The United States has spent years signaling a pivot toward the Indo-Pacific, and European allies have long been urged to shoulder more of the burden for their own defense. From that perspective, these exercises represent a maturing of the alliance—Europeans stepping up rather than waiting for Washington. The Trump administration, regardless of party, has pressed this point relentlessly, and many European leaders now privately concede the logic, even if they resent the delivery. Yet the counterargument is equally compelling. The North Atlantic is not merely a European concern; it is the maritime bridge that connects the United States to its most vital allies. If Russian submarines can operate freely in the Atlantic, they threaten the reinforcement pipeline that would carry American troops and materiel to Europe in a crisis. An alliance that cannot secure its own lifeline is an alliance living on borrowed time. The absence of the U.S. may be a practical test of European capability, but it is also a reminder that the transatlantic bond is only as strong as the willingness of both sides to show up. What makes this story significant is not the exercise itself, but what it reveals about the changing grammar of alliance politics. NATO was built on the assumption of American primacy; its command structures, logistics, and intelligence-sharing all presume U.S. participation. When allies rehearse without that anchor, they are not just practicing submarine hunting—they are practicing for a future in which the United States is a fair-weather friend rather than a permanent guarantor. Whether that future arrives depends as much on Washington's next election as on Moscow's next submarine launch. Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/05/nato-iceland-allies-trump-us-01065450