Graham, Norman tied in South Carolina Senate poll

The polling data from Trafalgar Group—a firm known for its Republican-leaning methodology—paints a picture of an unusually competitive primary for a senior incumbent like Lindsey Graham. While Graham has long been a fixture in South Carolina politics, his evolving positions on issues such as judicial confirmations and his relationship with former President Trump have alienated some grassroots conservatives. Norman, a businessman and former state legislator, has tapped into that discontent, framing himself as a more steadfastly conservative option. It's worth noting that Trafalgar's polls have sometimes diverged from other surveys, and their track record in recent cycles has been mixed. However, the fact that Graham is not cruising to victory in a primary he should theoretically dominate signals a real vulnerability. The runoff format—which typically draws a smaller, more ideological electorate—could amplify Norman's appeal. If Graham fails to mobilize the moderate and establishment wings of the party, he could face an upset. Conversely, his name recognition, fundraising advantage, and endorsements from national figures may still carry him over the line. Tuesday's result will be a telling indicator of where the GOP base stands in a post-Trump era, especially in a state that has historically rewarded incumbency.