Apple event 2026 live: Will we see the foldable iPhone Ultra at the 'Surprise and shine' keynote today?

Apple's "Surprise and shine" keynote is shaping up to be its most consequential hardware event in years. The rumored foldable iPhone Ultra isn't just another spec bump—it's a strategic admission that the traditional slab smartphone has plateaued. After years of dismissing foldables as a niche experiment, Apple appears ready to enter the category with its typical late-mover polish, betting that superior hinge mechanics and software integration will leapfrog Samsung's early lead. The iPhone 18 Pro, if it follows the annual cadence, will likely focus on camera improvements and a new chip, but those are now table stakes. The real question is how Apple differentiates the Ultra from the Pro. If the foldable commands a premium price, Apple needs to justify it with genuine productivity features—not just a larger screen. The risk is repeating the iPad Pro's "what is it for?" problem, where powerful hardware lacks a compelling use case. Meanwhile, the Apple Watch Series 12 is expected to add health sensors, possibly blood pressure monitoring. That's a sensible continuation of Apple's healthcare push, but it's not the kind of "surprise" that moves stock. The foldable is the story. Apple has a history of entering mature categories with refined, ecosystem-tightened products, and if the Ultra delivers on durability and software, it could reset the foldable market's trajectory. But there's also a cautionary note. Foldables are still fragile, expensive, and have yet to convince mainstream users they're essential. Apple's brand could accelerate adoption, but it could also expose the category's weaknesses to a broader audience. Either way, today's event signals that Apple is no longer willing to sit on the sidelines. The question is whether the Ultra is a revolution or a well-engineered compromise.